Complete Doom Solution

[Terrorcorp]

okay... i want to say that i studdied theory of probability, math statistics, math analys ) and i know exact formulas ) i dont need to know probobility of 1 drop. for week it will be 99.99% and this numeric shows nothing, becuase for a week i can drop 5 arts or nothing. if u calculate probobility of one side of coing for 100 turns, it will be 99.999% and what for do u need this value? the value u re interested is 50 times in average.
i caclualted that for 2 hours i drop 0.23 of art )) or in average 1 art for 8 hours of playing. i dont care that it's wrong probobility calcualtion or whatever. actualy i calculated 30 min. in fact it's 20 most of the time ) and it doesnt matter, because i dont care about probobility of my drops. the aim of previuos post was to show that a member of banzai-horde drops ~15 times less, than me ) and actualy that's all

fnurov is right... there's no need for theorical probability when you have the luxury to see probability with an empirical approach.

Empirical in this case is better because we r not sure if the data we have is perfectly applicable to the one of the server... (for example a lot of skill training tables in sticky are wrong...)

[Terrorcorp]

btw , theorically for probability in this case is calculated as a binomial...

so in the case of the n=5 mobs the probability for the monster to drop(no your probability to get the drop) assuming that P=0.0075 is the prob of success k=#successes it gets:

P(k=1) = n!/(n-k)!*p^k*(1-p)^(n-k)

for P(k>1) i think the prob is so low that u can easily forget about it


i prefer fnurov's empirical prob

[Terrorcorp]

dude , 1-0.9975 it is wrong as probability because it considers only the fact to process n-1 fails on every event and the last must be success so it considers only this event:

0 0 0 0 0 1 on n=6 but if want to give a probability on the number of successes on n tries u have to consider 0 0 1 0 0 0 aswell...



So that formula gives the probability of n consecutive fails and then u r saying that after the Nth toss u have 1-0.9975^n prob to drop.... so it comes out that on n=100 u have a 52% chance to drop on the next try... u can't calculate probability on rolling basis (in that case prob of drop remains 0.0025)

My formula says on 100 tries there's a 22% prob to drop 1 or more times (and that's not considering luck etc only by mobs) wich is by far more realistic

[DaniOvertures]

okay... i want to say that i studdied theory of probability, math statistics, math analys ) and i know exact formulas ) i dont need to know probobility of 1 drop. for week it will be 99.99% and this numeric shows nothing, becuase for a week i can drop 5 arts or nothing. if u calculate probobility of one side of coing for 100 turns, it will be 99.999% and what for do u need this value? the value u re interested is 50 times in average.
i caclualted that for 2 hours i drop 0.23 of art )) or in average 1 art for 8 hours of playing. i dont care that it's wrong probobility calcualtion or whatever. actualy i calculated 30 min. in fact it's 20 most of the time ) and it doesnt matter, because i dont care about probobility of my drops. the aim of previuos post was to show that a member of banzai-horde drops ~15 times less, than me ) and actualy that's all

yeah, if you've read i said that ur post was nice, and i haven't say anything about your math preparation, it's only to give a correct way to read the % formula for everyone

[DaniOvertures]

dude , 1-0.9975 it is wrong as probability because it considers only the fact to process n-1 fails on every event and the last must be success so it considers only this event:

0 0 0 0 0 1 on n=6 but if want to give a probability on the number of successes on n tries u have to consider 0 0 1 0 0 0 aswell...



So that formula gives the probability of n consecutive fails and then u r saying that after the Nth toss u have 1-0.9975^n prob to drop.... so it comes out that on n=100 u have a 52% chance to drop on the next try... u can't calculate probability on rolling basis (in that case prob of drop remains 0.0025)

My formula says on 100 tries there's a 22% prob to drop (and that's not considering luck etc only by mobs) wich is by far more realistic

...the formula NOT says the prob that you have on the next cycle, it only says how much prob you have to drop 1 art in n cycle =)
btw if you try to calculate what you have written is:
1 - 0,9975^100 = 0,22% not 0,52 as you said
the probably of drop every cycle remains the same cause (for now without fix) client has not memory so you can be at your first cycle or at you 100th cycle and you have still the same prob to drop, but the prob to drop 1 art in 100cycle is not the same to drop 1 art in 1cycle and it's approx give by the theory

[Terrorcorp]

oh yeah that s the same...

because u say the prob to get >=1 of successes .... cuz u say the prob not to drop is (1-p)^n so when u do 1-(1-p)^n is automatically as saying the prob the get 1 or more drops.

Since ur formula gave(on my mistake) another prob i was trying to convince myself about the error

[fnurov]

stop discussing theory of probobility in this thread please.
there is the law of bernuly, that says "if felix kills 10000000000 impalers, he will get 10000000000*0.0075/32 totems without probabilities, for sure" and that's enought for any kind of calculations

[DaniOvertures]

stop discussing theory of probobility in this thread please.
there is the law of bernuly, that says "if felix kills 10000000000 impalers, he will get 10000000000*0.0075/32 totems without probabilities, for sure" and that's enought for any kind of calculations

i'm still hating you for your drops :P
see you in doom (now for example, for about 1 hour)

[fnurov]

i'm still hating you for your drops :P
see you in doom (now for example, for about 1 hour)

and i hate u for trying to decreese my drops even in math. i said 0.232. than u said 0.2126.
for 100000000 hours of playing the difrence is (0.232 - 0.2126) * ( 100000000 / 2 ) * 0.75 / 32 of totems. and u r wrong by the law of bernuly

[Tunderstorm]

22734.375 totems? that's quite a big difference :P

[fnurov]

(0.232 - 0.2126) * ( 100000000 / 2 ) * ( 0.75 / 100 ) / 32 to be correct

[DaniOvertures]

LoL i was the pg that have dropped before about at 3pm and esultate about my first drop ))
btw formulas are still incorrect because you have not to add 1.25 + 0.75*4 but 1.25+(0.75*(1-1.25/100))+(0.75*(1-(1.25+(0.75*(1-1.25/100)))/100)+ecc...
but now bernuly works also for me so stop talking math and go doom!

[fnurov]

Tamer vs DF

YouTube - Tamer vs DF (nice try) - Ultima Online - UODreams

[fnurov]

necromages in doom

YouTube - NecroMages in Doom - Ultima Online - UODreams



the power of revenant

[hadlerzz]

ciao sto cercando di farmi un pg war da doom ( da poter usare anche con altri perless), credo di aver capito che le skill dovrebbero essere

sword 120
tactics 120
anatomy 120
bushido 120
chivalry 70
res spell 70
necro 100

dovrei avere come minimo 100 120 30 di stat (+ bonus degli item)

portare come minimo fc4 fcr6 hci40 dci40 lmc40 e usare armi con ssi hml oppure hld possibilmente slyer.. non è indispensabile lrc se ho intenzione di pagare con i thin points di chivalry e usare i reag necessari per vampiric

questo ragionamento è corretto?
in tal caso mi sapreste spiegare come dovrei usarlo?
se ho capito bene dovrei trasformarmi in vampiric e spammare qualche spell ma non ho capito quali e di quali skill...

necro mi serve solo per vampiric? che spell di chivalry o bushido mi servono?

che tipo di bonus devo preferire avere almeno all'inizio?
attualmente ho sia gli occhialini fire con mr3 che i mace and schield... oppure ho heart of lion o carapace...void...che tipo di scudo serve ecc

purtroppo è il primo pg da doom serio che vorrei farmi...per ora ho soppato solo 120 sword